Economic Commentary April 2020

on Apr 9, 2020 10:15:00 AM By | Mel Miller | 0 Comments | Stock Investing Economic Commentary Economy
"March Madness" Turns to March Sadness By Mel Miller, CFA®, Chief Economist  |  Download PDF As an economist, I rely on government and industry statistics to determine not only my analysis of the current economy but to formulate my forecast of the future direction of the economy.  Tempering my investigation is the built-in lag time in the releases of at least one month. Typically a one month lag is of little consequence as an economy does not change rapidly but merely continues or reverses well-established trends. In a “normal” economy, I feel reasonably confident in describing the current situation, adding my interpretation, and forecasting the next quarter’s economic outcome within a small margin of error.  I define this process as writing “non-fiction.”
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Economic Commentary January 2020

on Jan 22, 2020 10:15:00 AM By | Mel Miller | 0 Comments | Stock Investing Economic Commentary Economy
Civility On Hold By Mel Miller, CFA®, Chief Economist  |  Download PDF The current political environment turned even more toxic during the fourth quarter of 2019. One can only hope that historians will look back on 2019 as the low point of civility. President Trump, impeached in the House of Representatives, following partisan wrangling in what observers feel was the most toxic hearing in U.S. history. The septic environment has bifurcated groups and families making for tense Holiday gatherings. Judged by friendly Republicans, the President will likely prevail in the Senate.
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Economic Commentary October 2019

on Oct 28, 2019 10:15:00 AM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Economic Commentary
Falling Leaves and Economy? By Mel Miller, CFA®, Chief Economist  |  Download PDF Fall is here.  As I watch leaves drifting down to the ground from my office window, I have to ask whether the economy will follow a similar pattern of slowly drifting lower.  The summer was a record-breaker in terms of rainfall here in Wisconsin as flooding captured the headlines.  The economy also is in the record-breaking territory, as the expansion is now the longest continuous expansion in history. 
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Economic Commentary June 2019

on Aug 8, 2019 10:15:00 AM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Economic Commentary
Record Archived By Mel Miller, CFA® | Chief Economist Download PDF The US economy enters July having achieved the longest economic expansion in history. The economy reversed the contraction that began in July of 2004, starting at the end of the second quarter of 2009.
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Economic Commentary March 2019

on Apr 25, 2019 10:15:00 AM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Economic Commentary
Slowing Continues By Mel Miller, CFA® | Chief Economist Download PDF The December Economic Commentary highlighted my concern that the economy might have slowed “too much.” As I share the first quarter results in this publication, I still can not answer the question. The fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 2.2%. The first quarter GDP slowed from the fourth quarter but by how much? Is a recession on the near horizon? Let’s examine the data.
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Economic Commentary December 2018

on Jan 23, 2019 2:00:00 PM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Economic Commentary
Economy Moderates — Too Much? By Mel Miller, CFA® | Chief Economist Download PDF The third-quarter economic growth moderated from the torrid second-quarter expansion of 4.2% annualized, reflecting a healthy 3.5% growth rate. Did the pace continue to slow in the fourth quarter or did the economy rebound to the second quarter level? What is my forecast for 2019? My goal is to answer these questions.
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Economic Commentary October 2018

on Oct 23, 2018 10:15:00 AM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Economic Commentary
One for the Record Books By Mel Miller, CFA® | Chief Economist Download PDF In spite of growing trade war tensions, especially with China, one would not expect a robust economic showing during the third quarter. Yet the economy continues the expansion that began in 2009. In fact, I want to highlight a couple of records that were broken in the third quarter.
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Economic Commentary Q3 2018

on Jul 1, 2018 10:15:00 AM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Economic Commentary
The Geo-Political Winds of Change are Blowing By Mel Miller, CFA® | Chief Economist Download PDF In my first quarter Economic Commentary, I stated, “The actions taken the first quarter by the President pose the greatest long-term risk to the economy of any decisions in my lifetime.” Specifically, I shared my concern about the newly enacted tax reform bill, which will add $1.5 trillion to the national debt and the imposition of 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% on aluminum ran the risk of a full-blown trade war.
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Economic Commentary Q2 2018

on Apr 1, 2018 10:15:00 AM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Economic Commentary
Economic Commentary – April 2018
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Economic Commentary Q1 2018

on Jan 1, 2018 11:00:00 AM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Economic Commentary
Economic Commentary – January 2018
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