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Thought Leadership

Market Commentary October 2019

on Oct 30, 2019 11:30:00 AM By | Theresa Gusman | 0 Comments | Market Commentary
In this issue: Global Market Highlights  |  Outlook - Climbing A Wall Of Worry...Until We Get To The Top  |  Quarterly Bond Market Overview Earnings and Economic Growth Decelerating, Valuations Stretched - Markets Rising? By Theresa Gusman, Chief Investment Officer  |  Download PDF US equities continue to hit new highs. After its best first half in 22 years, the S&P 500 posted a 1.7% gain in the third quarter. Global equity markets were mixed. Japanese, European and US equities rose in the third quarter, while non-Japan Asia and Emerging Markets declined, paring gains for the year. Volatility persisted during the quarter. Global equity markets advanced and declined along with trade tensions, Brexit news, and monetary easing amid slowing economic activity and continued low inflation. Despite the volatility, equity markets remain resilient, even as global growth slows, earnings growth decelerates sharply, and valuations are stretched.
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Market Commentary June 2019

on Jul 31, 2019 12:29:08 PM By | Theresa Gusman | 0 Comments | Market Commentary
In this issue: Quarterly Performance Benchmarks  |  Global Market Highlights  |  Outlook – Climbing a wall of worry…Until we get to the top  |  Quarterly Bond Market Overview Download PDF Mixed signals: New Highs, Decelerating Earnings Growth, Stretched Valuations By Theresa Gusman US equities continue to hit new highs. The S&P 500 posted its best first half in 22 years, rising 18.5% through the end of June. Stock markets advanced worldwide, with developed and emerging international markets up 14.0% and 10.6%, respectively, year-to-date, and 3.7% and 0.6% in the second quarter. Volatility persisted during the quarter, with global equity markets rising and falling along with trade tensions -- until it became apparent that the Federal Reserve would be quick to reduce rates amid slowing economic activity and continued low inflation. Fresh highs come amid slowing global growth, sharply decelerating earnings growth and stretched valuations.
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Market Commentary March 2019

on Apr 25, 2019 1:10:45 PM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Market Commentary
Also In this Issue: Outlook — Modest Equity Returns Amid Higher Volatility | Quarterly Performance Benchmarks | Fixed Income Commentary Download PDF Volatility reigns: It just feels better on the upside By Theresa Gusman Volatility reigned in the first quarter. The US stocks surged higher, posting their best quarter in nearly a decade and offsetting the fourth quarter downdraft. Equity markets rebounded worldwide led by China, as US-China trade tensions eased, and the Fed signaled that it is unlikely to raise rates in 2019. The first quarter was the mirror image of the fourth. Growth stocks outperformed value, small outperformed large, economically sensitive sectors topped the performance charts, oil prices rebounded, and China was the top performing market in the world. We remain convinced that the fourth quarter ushered in a period of equity market volatility (which always feels better on the upside), asynchronous and decelerating global economic and profit growth, and negative earnings surprises.
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Market Commentary December 2018

on Jan 23, 2019 1:56:20 PM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Market Commentary
Also In this Issue: 2019 Outlook — Modest Equity Returns Amid Higher Volatility | Quarterly Performance Benchmarks | Fixed Income Commentary Download PDF It's (still) the Earnings... By Theresa Gusman Ushering in a period of asynchronous and decelerating global economic and profit growth and negative earnings surprises, equity markets fell amid volatile trading in the fourth quarter, erasing gains for the year in the US. US equities slid 13.5% in the fourth quarter, overwhelming increases through the first nine months and resulting in a 4.4% decline for the year. The globally sensitive Energy (-18.1%), Materials (-14.7%), and Industrials (-13.3%) S&P 500 Sectors were the worst performing in 2018, and Health Care (+6.5%), Utilities (+4.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%) fared best. Although the pace of decline in non-US equity markets slowed in the fourth quarter, emerging markets fell 14.6% in 2018, as developed international markets dropped 13.8%. Except for Wheat (+3.6%) and Live Cattle (+2.6%), commodity prices ended the year lower. WTI Crude Oil plunged 20.5% in 2018 and 37.5% in the fourth quarter and economic bell weathers Zinc (-23.4%) and Copper (-21.3%) were among the worst performers in 2018.
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Market Commentary October 2018

on Oct 23, 2018 10:23:53 AM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Market Commentary
Also In this Issue: Quarterly Performance Benchmarks Download PDF It's the Earnings... By Theresa Gusman U.S. equities surged 7.71% in the third quarter as earnings remained strong. The MSCI KLD 400 Social Index underperformed this quarter, but continued to track the broader market this year. U.S. interest rates and the dollar continued higher, along with the economy. Non-U.S. equities showed signs of life, as both emerging and developed markets advanced.
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Market Commentary Q3 2018

on Jul 1, 2018 12:15:00 PM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Market Commentary
Also In this Issue: Quarterly Performance Benchmarks | The Smartest Guys in the Room Download PDF As Good As It Gets By Theresa Gusman Following a brief first quarter hiatus, the US equity market resumed climbing a wall of worry in the second quarter. International markets did not follow suit, with significant losses in emerging markets. As we look toward the second half and 2019, the outlook for global equities is clouded by decelerating economic and earnings growth, rising inflation and interest rates, higher oil prices, and trade headwinds.
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Market Commentary Q2 2018

on Apr 1, 2018 11:11:00 AM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Market Commentary
Market Commentary - April 2018
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Marketing Commentary Q1 2018

on Jan 1, 2018 11:06:00 AM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Market Commentary
Market Commentary – January 2018
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Market Commentary Q3 2017

on Oct 1, 2017 10:39:00 AM By | First Affirmative | 0 Comments | Market Commentary
Also In this Issue: Quarterly Performance Benchmarks | A Nobel Prize to Cheer | Fixed Income Commentary Download PDF Investing Utopia By Kevin O’Keefe, CIMA®, AIF® Diversified portfolios across the risk-return spectrum again ratcheted higher in the third quarter as global financial assets rose in unison. Not only did investors receive strong returns, they also achieved them with little volatility.
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