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Economic Overview – July 2022

Written by First Affirmative

Economic Commentary

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GDP Returns to Trend, Surging Inflation, Open Jobs, and Consumer Confidence Wanes


  • GDP had recovered from the COVID pandemic.  However, current indicators – consumer confidence, surging interest rates, hiring slowdowns – may presage a recession.
  • Watch out for high inflation and its effects on a generation that has never experienced rising prices.
  • Employees are quitting at higher rates amid stagnant wages relative to inflation, and work environments that do not meet their needs (i.e., desire to continue to work remotely). At the same time, hiring plans are being curtailed.
  • Consumers’ confidence is waning.

GDP Returns to Pre-Pandemic Trend

Figure 1. Real US GDP

Source: JPM Guide to Markets 3Q2022