By Theresa Gusman
The Future is not what it used to be1
Overview
Over the past two years, the US equity market enjoyed a long, steady march higher, with the S&P 500 climbing 25% in 2024 following a 26% gain in 2023. In stark contrast, 2025’s year-to-date period has been a rollercoaster. The S&P 500 declined 5.8% in March, bringing the first quarter decrease to 4.3%. We thought that was bad until the market plunged 9.1% in the five days after President Trump’s April 2nd “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, then surged 9.5% in the days after the April 9th tariff rollback. As the President approaches his first 100 days in office (April 29th), the pace of announcements on slashing government waste, immigration reform, tariffs, deregulation, accelerating US investment, and Congressional budget deliberations has been manic, and global equity, debt, and currency markets have reacted — with daily 2%-5%-plus up and down moves becoming commonplace.
