Don’t React… Anticipate! Overview Following a 24.3% rise in 2023, the S&P 500 advanced 10.6% in the first quarter. By quarter end, the S&P 500 had reached an all-time high, exceeding the January 2022 peak by 10% and the March 2020 COVID low by 135% (see Figure 1). Equity market performance remained highly concentrated in […]
Quo VADIS – Where are you going? By Theresa Gusman Overview The S&P 500 advanced 11.7% in the fourth quarter, cementing a 24.3% rise in 2023. Through most of last year, the S&P 500’s narrow leadership camouflaged the paltry returns of the broader index and punished investors underweight the Artificial Intelligence (AI)-fueled stocks known as […]
The “Other 493” Play Catch Up By Theresa Gusman Overview The S&P 500 increased 8.7% in the second quarter, boosting the first half rise to 16.9% (see Figure 1). 70% of the performance of the S&P 500, more than 95% of the performance of the more concentrated MSCI USA, and 70% of the performance of […]
View the Full PDF Here Corporate profits to decline: Priced in or “the other shoe”? By Theresa Gusman Overview Inflation’s surge to a 40-year high in 2022 let the Fed to an unprecedented series of interest-rate increases, cratering the bond market and sending stocks tumbling. Following a 24.9% decline in the first three quarters 0f […]
Click Here to View Full PDF Corporate profits to decline: Priced in or “the other shoe”? Overview Inflation’s surge to a 40-year high in 2022 led the Fed to an unprecedented series of interest-rate increases, cratering the bond market and sending stocks tumbling. Following a 24.9% decline in the first three quarters 0f 2022, the […]
Click Here to View Full PDF Recession looms – But “it’s always darkest before the dawn”1 Overview After recording their worst first half in more than 50 years, US stocks fell 4.8% in the third quarter bringing the full year decline to 24.9% (see Figure 1, below) before an October rally pushed the S&P 500 […]
Click Here to View Full PDF What’ll it be? Soft Landing, Stagnation, Hard Landing, or Stagflation “History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but it often Rhymes.” – Mark Twain Overview Stocks recorded their worst first half in more than 50 years, with the S&P 500 plunging 20.6% (see Figure 1, below). However equity valuations have become more […]
Click Here to View Full PDF Nowhere to Hide “It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked.” Warren Buffet Overview Remember when…The S&P 500 advanced 27% in 2021, at year end the US 10-year Treasury yield was 1.5% and regular gasoline cost $3.28/gallon, and the COVID pandemic was […]
Click Here to View PDF Wait! What? Overview Following a 27% gain in 2021, the S&P 500 was 113% above its March 23, 2020, pandemic low and 41% above its pre-pandemic high (see Figure 1 below) at fourth quarter end. As we entered the fourth quarter, we were optimistic that COVID was “under control” and […]
