If the US economy slips into recession, it is likely to be shallow (Figure 1). Consensus forecasts point toward an economic slowdown/downturn in 2023, with the beginnings of recovery in 2024 (Figures 7 and 8).
GDP growth was just below its 2% trend level in 2022 and will fall below that level in 2023, particularly if the US enters a recession (Figure 2).
Inflation has fallen although it remains well above its 50-year average (Figure 3).
Housing prices remain extremely high (Figure 4).
Wage growth is moderating as the unemployment rate levels off (Figure 5).
Labor demand is down – albeit still high (Figure 6).
Figure 1. National Bureau of Economic Research – Six Determinates of Recession, 2019-2022